Week 68: The offensive commences
A map of the southern front where the focus of the offensive appears to be. Note the Russian lines of fortification marked with red pins.
The Ukrainian offensive
This week marks the long-awaited launch of Ukraine's offensive. The current focus lies along the Zaporizhzhia frontline in the south, precisely where many anticipated it to unfold. Russia has invested months in fortifying a vast network of trenches and defensive positions along this line, aiming to safeguard their crucial land bridge to occupied Crimea. The depth and complexity of the defensive network pose a significant challenge and expense for Ukraine to breach successfully.
Although the number of units engaged in the offensive is currently lower than is ultimately expected, there have been concerning losses suffered by the Ukrainian forces involved so far. Notably, a series of sizeable assaults by the Ukrainian army near Robotyne resulted in the loss of Western Leopard 2 tanks, Bradley APCs, and valuable mine clearing vehicles.
These losses have been widely circulated by pro-Russian mainstream and social media. It is important to note that the majority of vehicle losses depicted are from one specific location, indicating that losses in other areas may not be as significant. This could be attributed to successes in other regions or smaller scale attacks elsewhere.
The loss of the Bradley vehicles, in particular, is not as concerning as it may first appear. They have effectively fulfilled their primary purpose of protecting their crews even in the event of loss of the vehicle itself. The United States maintains a significant reserve of these vehicles and has indicated it will provide replacements for losses.
Despite the setback encountered north of Robotyne, Ukraine has successfully liberated the settlements of Novodarivka, Neskuchne, and Blahodatne. Advancements have also been made in the vicinity of Lobkove. Due to tight Operational Security (OPSEC) measures in place over the past week, the precise situation along much of the front line remains unclear.
Away from the southern frontline, Ukrainian forces have made progress on the flanks of Bakhmut and re-entered the southwest of the city.
A map showing the changes to control around Bakhmut over the last week.
Nova Kakhovka dam destroyed
On June 6, 2023, a devastating explosion destroyed the Kakhovka dam in southern Ukraine, resulting in significant downstream flooding that has caused the destruction of homes and triggered an ecological crisis. The dam was an integral part of a hydroelectric power plant and also supplied water to the North Crimean Canal (NCC), serving as the primary freshwater source for the occupied Crimea peninsula. Currently, the water level in the reservoir has dropped below the NCC inlet, halting the flow of water to Crimea.
The Ukrainian government and the international community have condemned the destruction of the dam as a war crime and a violation of international law. They have accused Russia of deliberately sacrificing Crimea by demolishing the dam, leading to a humanitarian and ecological catastrophe. The international community stands in solidarity with Ukraine and has called for an impartial investigation into this incident.
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