Week 65: The fall of Bakhmut.
Bakhmut - Russian forces occupy the city
In a significant development, Russian forces have made gains into the remaining strongholds of Bakhmut, compelling Ukraine to completely withdraw from the city. Small groups of Ukrainian units valiantly held onto the last buildings on the outskirts, facilitating a safer withdrawal for the remaining Ukrainian forces. Subsequently, Russian forces swiftly moved in and captured large sections of the city.
Prigozhin declares victory in Bakhmut, standing at the central Train station.
This advancement was confirmed by Wagner fighters through released video footage, which also revealed that Ukrainians had also largely withdrawn from the outskirts of the city. The focus of Russian forces now shifts towards following them beyond Ivanivs'ke to Chasiv Yar. Fighting at the end of the week was ongoing in the small satellite hamlet of Khromove, though it holds no strategic importance and Ukraine is likely falling back to defensive positions on the higher ground further west.
Fortress Bakhmut
Although Bakhmut was previously touted as a fortress city, providing a "clear road to the rest of Ukraine" if it were to be captured, the Ukrainian forces inside the city successfully withstood the Russian assault for many months. This allowed for extensive fortifications and preparations to be made behind the defensive line. The extent to which Ukraine has been able to capitalize on this advantage or whether they have been compelled to divert attention to other priorities will be seen over the coming weeks.
While the strategic importance of the town itself may have diminished, the cost in terms of manpower has been significant for both sides. The Russian leadership can claim a propaganda victory, albeit somewhat diminished due to the extended duration of the operation.
The changes to control around Bakhmut over the past week.
Bakhmut’s flanks
South of the city, Russian positions have experienced partial weakening, with the main defensive line now pushed back to the high ground immediately west of Klitchkivka. Notably, Ukraine has also made progress in their advance on the northern flank, posing a partial threat to Russian positions northeast of Orikhovo-Vasylivka. Ukrainian sources claim that the intention of these movements is to complete an operational encirclement of Bakhmut, potentially with a view to reverse the recent Russian success. Recent advances have been slow, so it remains to be seen whether this goal will result in Ukraine’s own success.
Despite expectations of a large Ukrainian counteroffensive, it has yet to materialise. However, minor probing attacks and "shaping operations" persist along the frontline. Russian forces remain focused on preparing their defensive positions in anticipation of any potential attack.
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