Week 63: Wagner’s Bakhmut losses
Bakhmut - Prigozhin threatens exit
Changes to control around Bakhmut over the last week.
Despite Russia's continued advances in the area, Ukraine has managed to hold out for another week in Bakhmut. Russia has continued its advances to Ukraine’s stronghold positions in the western high-rises, and has also made further advances north of the Khromove supply road.
This week, a dramatic video was released of the leader of the Wagner mercenary group, Yevgeny Prigozhin, publicly criticizing the Russian military leadership while standing in front of the bodies of 30+ Wagner fighters said to have been killed that day in Bakhmut. According to Prigozhin, his units are lacking 70% of the required ammunition, which has caused five times the losses they would otherwise have suffered. Prigozhin also threatened to withdraw the Wagner forces not only from Bakhmut but from Ukraine entirely. The Russian army has promised to increase ammunition supply, but so far, according to Prigozhin, this promise has not been fulfilled.
Drone strike on the Kremlin
On Wednesday, it was reported that two drones had been used to carry out a small attack on the Kremlin in Moscow. The drones caused only minor damage and did not appear to pose a significant threat.
Russia has accused Ukraine of being behind the attack, claiming that it was an attempted assassination of President Vladimir Putin. The Kremlin has stated that the attack was foiled and the drones destroyed. However, Ukrainian officials have denied any involvement in the incident.
There has been speculation that the attack may have been a false flag operation, designed to allow an escalation. However, given the lack of an escalated response from Russia, this theory is unlikely. Another possibility is that the attack was carried out by partisan groups within Russia.
Avdiivka advances and map adjustments
Changes to control around Avdiivka over the past week.
Russia has been fighting for control around a rail crossing northeast of Krasnohorivka and Avdiivka. They have managed to take control of the road and the fields to the west. However, newly identified Ukrainian positions have led to an adjustment of the map.
The first of these positions is along the N20 highway to the west of the city, which has resulted in the reduction of the extent of the Russian advances there.
The second is in the area between Vodiane and Opytne, which Ukraine has recaptured. It is unclear when this ground was retaken, but it was likely during a local counter-attack that took place five weeks ago and resulted in the recapture of positions directly to the west of these new positions.
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