Week 59: Bakhmut on verge of capture.
Bakhmut
The changes to control over the past week within Bakhmut.
Over the past week Russia has made relatively significant gains in the city of Bakhmut after months of fighting. At the latter end of last week, they captured parts of the city centre, this week they consolidated these gains and pushed even further, forcing Ukrainian defences back. At this point, Ukraine only has a secure hold over areas west of the rail line which separates the centre of the city from the west side.
While the flanks of the front-line leading to the city remain stable, they are vulnerable, and Ukraine has lost a significant number of vehicles on the supply roads into the city. Given these developments, Ukraine is expected to withdraw from the city before Russia advances much further. This will be a challenging manoeuvre, as the roads are highly exposed and difficult to traverse quickly due to damage from shelling, destroyed vehicles along the route, and thick mud. The longer they leave it the greater the risk that the withdrawal is a failure as covering the retreat will become more challenging as more of the city is lost.
South of Bakhmut, Russia has been able to establish some forward positions across the canal in preparation for supporting further advances once Bakhmut has been captured.
Russian advances across the canal to the south of Bakhmut.
The next Ukraine offensive
Analysis of Russian defensive fortifications by Brady Africk.
The next Ukrainian offensive is likely to take place in early May, as temperatures continue to rise, rainfall reduces, and the muddy ground hardens. Russian forces have been consolidating their captured territories by developing defensive fortifications a few kilometres behind the current front-line, in preparation for an expected Ukrainian counter-offensive.
Analysis by Brady Africk (@Bradyafr) has been overlaid on the WarMapper front-line map to show the range of positions relative to the front-line and it reveals a focus on the establishment of defensive positions along the Zaporizhzhia front-line. There are multiple lines of fortifications here and the defences extend all the way back to, and within, Crimea itself.
Additionally, a few towns in Zaporizhzhia oblast such as Tokmak and Mykhailivka are surrounded by defences, enabling them to be held even if Ukraine achieves a breakthrough that goes deeper behind the line than these towns. These fortifications will not prevent an offensive but will mean that a sudden and swift retaking of territory, as seen in the Kharkiv offensive last year, is less likely.
A close-up on the Russian defensive positions along the Zaporizhzhia front.
US Government Leaks
This week, a set of documents purporting to show top-secret information were spread across Twitter and Telegram. Parts of the documents detail the location and types of Ukraine's air defence network as well as what Western equipment has been provided to which Ukrainian units and when they are expected to be ready for an offensive.
The leaks, which appear to have originated from a Discord channel almost two months ago, could be damaging to Ukraine's upcoming offensive as well as the effectiveness of its' air defence systems. However, it is important to note that the legitimacy of these leaks is disputed, and Russian officials have claimed that they are disinformation spread by the US government, calling it a "classical information special operation." Meanwhile, the US justice department has only stated that they are investigating the leak and have not commented further on the authenticity of the documents.
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