Week 57 - Russia’s focus on Bakhmut and Avdiivka
Russia intensifies attacks on Avdiivka
For the past several weeks, Russian forces have intensified their attacks on the city of Avdiivka, which is situated on the northern outskirts of Donetsk city. Avdiivka is one of the few places where control has remained relatively stable since the conflict escalated more than a year ago, when Russia launched a full-scale invasion of Ukraine.
The Russians are attempting to encircle the city by focusing their attacks on its flanks, as they initially attempted with Bakhmut. They have captured the settlement of Krasnohorivka (north of Avdiivka) and are currently advancing in the direction of Stepove, another village nearby.
In addition to their attacks on the northern flank, the Russians have also made some gains in the south of Pervomais’ke along the southern bank of one of the reservoirs next to the settlement.
Despite these successes the Russians have not been able to break through the Ukrainian defenses in other directions. They have launched several attacks towards Sjeverne, a village west of Avdiivka, and towards the southwest of Avdiivka itself, but they have not recorded any territorial gains in these directions this week.
The Ukrainians have a strong defensive position south of Avdiivka, where they have a network of trenches that has held out against the Russian attacks for over a year. During one of the recent attacks, the Russians managed to capture parts of the trench network (circled in Fig. 1). However, Ukraine launched a counterattack and successfully pushed the Russians back to their original lines.
Fig 1 - The frontlines around Avdiivka. Purple indicates territory under Russian control before the escaltion on 24th February 2022.
Bakhmut under renewed Russian pressure
The Russian forces have resumed their advances within Bakhmut after several days of successful resistance from the Ukrainian defenders. They have made progress in the north of the city, especially in the industrial district (marked in grey), but they have also pushed into the residential areas of the northwest. They have also advanced in the south of the city, but to a lesser extent than in the north.
In addition to their advances in the north and south, the Russians have also attacked the Ukrainian positions at the southern end of the industrial district, along the Bakhmutovka River. This river is a natural barrier that divides the eastern part of the city from the centre.
Fig 2 - The northern industrial area is marked in grey.
The Ukrainians have managed to hold their ground on the southwestern flank of the city, where they have prevented the Russians from crossing the canal. The Russians have attempted to secure a foothold on the other side of the canal, but they have been unsuccessful until now.
The centre of the city was hit by heavy artillery strikes during the middle of the week and the Russians have increased their pressure on Bakhmut. This indicates that Russia has not shifted its focus from capturing Bakhmut. This is contrary to the previous signs that Russia was losing interest in Bakhmut, as its attacks on the city had become less frequent and successful over the past two weeks.
Fig 3 - Location of attempted Russian
crossings of the canal
Fig 4 - Infrared overlay from Sentinel-2 satellite displaying fires in the city. Courtesy of Kosmi.
Russia’'s four focuses and Ukraine in Zaporizhzhia
Russia has been focusing on four areas for several months. The primary focal points are currently Bakhmut and the Donetsk city region (including the towns of Avdiivka and Marinka) discussed above. The third is Vulhedar and while it has reduced in focus over the past few weeks, Russia continues attempts to advance there. Vulhedar has been a highly costly battle for Russia with significant losses and an inability to consolidate any gains long term. This week they regained control of the western part of Mykil’s’ke, which had become a greyzone following a previous unsuccessful Russian assault. The fourth area of focus has been near Kreminna, where Russia was able to stabilise their line after Ukraine’s fast paced offensive to retake Kharkiv oblast back in September 2022. Russia had been able to successfully push Ukraine away from the northern and western outskirts of Kreminna. However, Ukrainian units still have a foothold in the forests south of the city.
Ukraine continues to carry out probing attacks along the Zaporizhzhia frontline, though at a lesser extent to last weeks actions. While a full offensive is expected to take place along this line it is unlikely to occur before the arrival of the new western vehicles and weapons.
Fig 5 - Focal points of Russian forces
1. Bakhmut, 2. Donetsk city (Avdiivka and Marinka), 3. Vulhedar, 4. Kreminna
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