Week 56 - Battle for Bakhmut continues as Ukraine pushes back
Is Russia losing momentum in Bakhmut?
Early in the week the Russian offensive on the city of Bakhmut had been continuing with its gradual but consistent progress, with advances being made in the northern and southern parts of the city. The northern industrial district saw Russian forces taking control of part of the AZOM plant, where Zelenskyy met with defenders of the city in late December. However, the Russian advances have now started to slow with a pause in the middle of the week before additional minor advances in the south over the weekend. It appears that their advances were temporarily halted by Ukraine for a few days. This is a positive development for Ukraine, which has been on the back-foot since the fall of the nearby town of Soledar 8 weeks ago which allowed Russian forces to attack from the north.
Ukraine counter attacks
Ukraine has managed to carry out successful counter attacks against Russian forces at two locations in the area of Bakhmut, both protecting the crucial and vulnerable supply routes into the city. The first was carried out south from Ivanivs’k and along the canal, which pushed the Russian attackers away from the edge of the settlement. The second counterattack was along the Khromove - Chasiv Yar supply road. Russian trenches had previously reached and blocked the road. Ukrainian forces pushed into the trenches, moving Russian control back some 500 meters. Despite this counterattack the Khromove – Chasiv Yar supply road remains dangerous to use due to it still being under fire control from Russian positions. The Russian plan to take the city of Bakhmut had looked to be targeting an encirclement and cutting supply, before closing in and taking the settlement. Ukraine has been able to slow the advances on the flanks and have forced Russia into a street by street battle for the city.
Fig-1. The changes to control in and around Bakhmut over the past week.
The next line of defence
North of Bakhmut, Russian forces have continued to advance gradually along the E40 road connecting Bakhmut and Slovyansk. Preventing the continuation of this advance could prove challenging as there are very few settlements along the road. In the past, Ukrainian defence has made good use of settlements as strong points in their line. It is possible that the Siverskyi Donets – Donbas canal will be used as a defensive line. Russian forces south of Bakhmut have struggled to cross the canal and establish any long term positions. If Russia is able to continue their advance along the road, it will begin to increase pressure on Sivers’k to the north.
Fig-2. The road to Slovyansk (Sloviansk) from Bakhmut, and
the Canal which may act as a defensive line.
Ukraine probing Russian defences on the Zaporizhzhia front
On the Zaporizhzhia front, Ukraine carried out probing attacks testing Russian defences. This front is widely believed to be the target for the next Ukrainian offensive, in a push towards Melitopol and the ‘land bridge’ to Crimea. The front line here has been almost stationary for a year, after Russia’s rapid advance was halted in the first month of the escalation of the war. Russia has constructed multiple defensive lines deep behind the front to defend Melitopol’ and the ‘land bridge’, indicating that they are preparing for a potential Ukrainian offensive here.
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