Due to the events in Sudan, a summary update of the Ukraine war was not possible last week. This update will cover the past two weeks of changes in Ukraine.

Bakhmut

In the past two weeks, Russian forces in Bakhmut have continued to make gradual gains, primarily in the centre of the city. Russian forces have now crossed the rail line, which was seen by many as a marker Ukraine would use for a defensive line. While Ukraine has been able to hold the Russians to a gradual advance, they have not been able to stop Russian progress entirely. As things stand, it will take until mid-May for Russia to fully capture the settlement. It is possible that a gradual withdrawal of troops and equipment has already been underway for some time, with enough of a force within the city to control the speed of the Russian advance.

In addition to the advance in the centre of Bakhmut, Russia has also advanced in the north of the city, advancing up to, and taking control of, the Rose Alley. While Rose Alley itself is not a significant objective, it marks a notable advance from previously confirmed Russian positions. Russian forces have also recaptured positions along the Khromove road, which they lost several weeks ago. While the road was already dangerous to pass, this advance has increased pressure further on remaining Ukrainian troops in the city. Recent footage has shown Russian forces to have advanced further west of Dubovo-Vasylivka, as they get closer to the canal.

Kherson

As the expected window for a Ukrainian offensive approaches, there will be many premature claims of the offensive having started. Many of these claims will be based on probing attacks carried out by Ukraine in an attempt to both to test the defences of the Russian line and to conceal the precise targets of the offensive. This has already been happening over the past weeks.

The most recent such attack has been across the Kherson river, with reports from Russian sources and drone footage showing Ukrainian fast boats and some units on the islands in the Kherson river. It is highly unlikely that there will be a large-scale attack along this portion of the line due to the swampy terrain and the lack of crossings since the destruction of the Kherson bridge by the Russian forces when they withdrew back south across it last year.

The new locations of Ukrainian presence in the Kherson area, as with other claims of a new offensive, have been in 'grey zones' - areas where neither Russia nor Ukraine has established positions and therefore does not necessarily indicate a loss of Russian control.

Elsewhere on the front

Moving on to other parts of the front, there has been a small advance by Russian forces north of Avdiivka, where they have taken and established positions along the main road. Additionally, there has been a slight Russian advance to the southeast of Bilohorivka. The area surrounding Bilohorivka has seen few control changes for several months, the last being the re-capture of the settlement by Ukrainian forces in mid-September last year.

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