Russia advances into Bakhmut city centre

Near the end of last week, Russia intensified their attacks on Ukrainian defences within Bakhmut. This week they continued to apply pressure and make advances within the city boundary, securing more residential areas in the south. Russian PMC Wagner units also captured what was the city council building located in the city centre, moving north along the bank of the Bakhmutovka river. Ukrainian forces may have withdrawn partially from other areas within the city centre to avoid getting cut off. Despite these changes within the city, there have been no changes to control on the flanks this week, and Ukrainian supply and evacuation routes remain usable.

Russian progress in Avdiivka stagnates

Over the week, there have been few changes in the ongoing fighting around Avdiivka. Russia made some advances to the northwest of the city, but they suffered significant losses north of Vodyane (Vodiane) and were unable to make any advances there. In fact, Ukraine was able to recapture some of the territory in that area, pushing the Russian line back partially. The priority for Russia remains pushing towards Stepove in the north, and Sjeverne and Pervomais'ke to the west. This is consistent with the presumed aim of securing and widening an encirclement, rather than attacking the city of Avdiivka directly. Although there are occasional attacks towards city of Avdiivka itself, there have been no major assaults on it recently.

Russia Makes Minor Advances in March

During the month of March, Russia made only limited advances in Ukraine, expanding its control by approximately 70km². This accounts for a total of roughly 16.68% of Ukraine being under the control of Russian forces, which is only a slight increase of 0.01% since the end of February. In February, they also made minor gains of a similar scale. The graph above displays the progression of control in Ukraine over the course of the conflict. Prior to the invasion on February 24th, 2022, Russia occupied about 6.45% of Ukraine through control of Crimea and parts of the Donbas.

The map below illustrates the changes to control over the past month in Bakhmut specifically. While Russia has been able to gradually advance into the city and threaten the northern supply route through Khromove, Ukraine has been able to relieve pressure on Ukrainian supply through Ivanivske.

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